While the GOP race came to a swift (and ridiculous) conclusion by Wednesday night, the same can’t be said for the Democrats. Even though he won the Indiana primary, Bernie Sanders has a larger issue to face than an uphill delegate battle: accepting his race is over.
Bernie is not alone. His more fevered supporters have jettisoned facts for comfort. Articles like Seth Abramson’s Huffington Post piece “5 Reasons Bernie Sanders Wins Big With Cruz Dropout,” were quickly shared on social media within hours of Sanders’ win.
Abramson writes New Mexico could now be in play for Sanders because the Vermont senator “performed incredibly well with nonwhite voters in Indiana.” This leads Abramson to believe Clinton “could lose all of the remaining primaries and caucuses.”
Abramson doesn’t provide a reference for his statement on Sanders’ performance for good reason: Sanders did horrible with Indiana’s minority voters.
Sanders got 37% of the nonwhite vote compared to Clinton’s 63%. Of the black vote, Sanders got 26% to Clinton’s 74%.
Sanders will likely win next week’s West Virginia primary (93.7% white population). However, I wouldn’t clear the board, Seth.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight currently projects only a 5% chance of Sanders winning California, the largest holder of delegates (546). The second largest delegate holder on the calendar is New Jersey with 142. A Monmouth University Poll released on Wednesday shows Clinton leading in support with 60% compared to Sanders 32%.
Although the minority vote has been a major hurdle for Sanders since the beginning (as discussed in my previous piece), Clinton’s lead is an even bigger one.
Post Indiana, Hillary currently leads in pledged delegates by 290. She is ahead in the popular vote by over 3 million.
Good luck with the #DropOutHillary movement.
Although Sanders won, due to the proportional allocation of delegates, he ultimately falls even further behind Clinton than prior to Tuesday’s primary.
If you have a friend telling you how the allocation process is “rigged” or a “scam,” it’s also the reason Sanders has done as well as he has.
The Upshot team has concluded that Sanders needs a voting share of nearly 70% in all of the remaining contests to lead Clinton in pledged delegates.
That’s not happening. So, what’s the back-up plan? Superdelegates.
On Sunday, Sanders argued that he should be entitled to the superdelegates of every state he won. Even if that were to happen, Sanders still loses to Clinton.
Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ numerically challenged campaign manager, has been telling the press for weeks now the campaign would seek to flip superdelegates at the convention.
Ignoring the fact that Sanders’ campaign survival tactic would hinge on the same party elites he rallies against, his plan would override the popular vote in the process. That’s what I refer to as a “dick move.”
This week Weaver explained how in 2008 “over 120 superdelegates switched their quote-unquote allegiance” from Hillary to Obama. Weaver added “there is a lot of movement of superdelegates in these contests.”
The Washington Post recently published Glenn Kessler’s excellent breakdown of the 2008 superdelegate situation and Weaver’s misrepresentation of it.
Kessler cross referenced his list of 116 superdelegates provided from the Sanders campaign with the 2008 Superdelegate Transparency Project.
Kessler concluded only 10 superdelegates switched to Obama before the final primary vote. After the final vote (and the week Clinton dropped out of the race), 18 switched to Obama.
The Transparency Project stopped tracking switches on June 4th, which means the remaining superdelegates switched to Obama after Clinton dropped out of the race.
Sanders is smart enough to know he can’t win, which makes me think he is simply remaining in the race to influence the party platform at the convention.
Mathematically, the race for the nomination is finished. To quote Mace Windu: “This party’s over.”